What IF…? – The Inside Story (Part 4)

The United States made a prediction that Russian soldiers would invade Ukraine on the 16th of Februrary, 2022. But the day ended without any invasion. So, it seems the U.S was raising unnecessary alarm or overblowing the alarm. But to justify their claim, they said Russian attack is still imminent. And while President Putin said his army are pulling back and de-escalating the Ukraine border, Biden said Putin is adding more military. So, who do we believe? Biden or Putin?

In this case, let’s consider 3 scenarios.

1. What IF what they are both saying is true? or

2. What IF what they are both saying is false? or

3. What IF one is true and the other is false?

So, let’s analyze them more critically.

1. What If They Are Both True?

The U.S has a strong intelligence and monitoring system that could know what is going on in Russia-Ukraine border, and for Biden to say more Russian soldiers are building up around the border could mean he has an evidence. If his evidence is true, it could mean Putin is trying to deceive the public so that he would launch the attack when no one is expecting. But if what Putin is saying is also true, it could mean he’s looking for the alternative to resolve the conflict without using war. But one thing is sure, he would not surrender his wish to the U.S, and he would not leave his territory into the hands of his enemies.

2. What If They Are Both False?

This could all be political propaganda. Both deceiving each other, and trying to play into each others’ hands. Biden may keep raising alarm to sell more weapons and do business. Putin may keep easing the tension to achieve his goals clandestinely. They both might have ulterior motives with their statements which are far different from what they are saying in the public. However, they may both hurt each other on the long run if they are both playing pranks.

3. What If One Is True And the Other Is False?

This is most likely. Biden might be false and Putin is true or Putin might be false and Biden is true. If the former is the case, it means Biden is a hypocrite who just want to make economic gains out of the whole Ukraine-Russia conflict. And he’s also reaching out to his allies who have business deals with Russia to increase their economic sanctions, so that Russia would give-in and buy-in to their western agenda. He wants to increase his east European influence so that he can have more supporters at his back to fight against China.

 

Ultimately, China is main deal. It is the major threat to U.S by far, both in military and economy, and also in democracy. So, the bid is all to garner more allies and defeat its number one enemy.

If on the other hand, Putin is the fibster, it would mean he’s trying to use guerilla warfare on Ukraine. He wants everyone to go to sleep while his army would suddenly attack Ukraine and take over the government. But it seems Putin is finding alternatives to solve his problems. He doesn’t want to take a chance with the West. So, he’s willing to extend his territory or at worst, maintain it. So, he’s giving it all it takes.

Meanwhile, all these are political scenarios which may play out or not. What we hope is that the conflict would not just be de-escalated but resolved finally so that there would not be any emergency cases in the future. And Ukraine would be at peace and the people would be at rest, and there would progress and development in our nations.